Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Bullish Breakout

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) Bullish Breakout

Silver strengthened on Monday as it reached a 10-day intraday high following a bullish breakout last Friday. In addition, last week’s high was exceeded providing an initial bullish signal on a weekly time frame.

Bullish Breakout in Silver

A breakout of a descending trend channel occurred last week with silver closing the week above the top trend line of the channel, and on a weekly basis closing at a three-week high. Currently, silver is at $17.80, up 0.071 or 0.40%.

Ideally, for the bulls, we would subsequently see an increase of momentum and buyer enthusiasm in price. So far, that’s not the case, but given that banks, stock and bond markets are closed in the U.S. due to the President’s Day holiday, activity levels can be expected to be muted.

Bullish Moving Average Crossover Confirmation

The 4-hour intraday chart provides a close-up view of recent price action. Today, there was one new piece of evidence on the intraday chart supportive of a continuation of the bullish move. The 21-period exponential moving average (ema) crossed above the 55-period ema.

Now, although this has happened before since silver started to correct off the $18.84 high from six weeks ago, it still provides another piece of evidence for higher prices.

Also keep an eye on the daily chart for a moving average crossover as that will give a stronger bullish confirmation signal. Of course, other moving average time frames can be used if there is a short and longer time frame period combined.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 18.34.

The projected lower bound is: 17.24.

The projected closing price is: 17.79.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 15 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.5020. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.19. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 28 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 59. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 25 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.035 at 17.765. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 37% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
17.740 17.886 17.680 17.765 0
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 17.66 17.65 16.86
Volatility: 14 20 24
Volume: 0 0 0

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 5.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.

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