Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) bearish for the safe-haven metals

Silver 1 OZ 999 NY (XAG=X) bearish for the safe-haven metals

Gold and silver prices are sharply lower in midday U.S. trading Monday. Gold notched a seven-week low and silver prices hit a five-week low. A strong U.S. dollar index that hit a new high for the year on Monday is credited with putting much of the downside pressure on the precious metals today.

Better risk appetite in the market place early this week is also bearish for the safe-haven metals. December gold futures were last down $28.60 an ounce at 1,477.60. December Comex silver prices were last down $0.532 at $17.12 an ounce. Both markets were poised to close at technically bearish monthly low closes on this last day of the month.

December silver futures bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. A four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated and a four-week-old downtrend is now in place. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $18.0 an ounce.

The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at $17.50 and then at today’s high of $17.66. Next support is seen at today’s low of $17.02 and then at $16.80.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 18.02.

The projected lower bound is: 16.05.

The projected closing price is: 17.03.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 11.1668. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.91. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -190.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAG= closed down -0.525 at 17.019. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 48% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
17.519 17.598 16.890 17.019 37,130
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 17.90 17.47 15.80
Volatility: 38 35 23
Volume: 3,713 743 186

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAG= is currently 7.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAG= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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