Just In: NFPs increased more than expected in June, the NFPs increased by 4.8-M and the prior month’s increase was revised up to 2.7-M from 2.509-M
Continuing my discussion with economist Bruce WD Barren, he went on to say: “Expect the US growth to continue in a very positive pattern even with the reversal of some of the restrictions now having to be re-imposed. Consumer confidence is good and this is what will drive our return to the job market, especially in small businesses where considerable job reinstatement will occur.
“Further, American industry has learned a great lesson for jobs are coming home because of the deep concerns about overseas dependence on product sourcing. In addition the just concluded new positive trade agreements with Canada and Mexico will add to our recovery.
“I expect that by election time in November, job recovery and new job opportunities will recover more than 50% of the lost jobs, given the growth in certain industries, especially in medical research, government grants, various government stimulus that are occurring likely plus the heavy demand for jobs in such industries as medical, automotive plus real estate sales. This, especially beneficial to small business, will drive our new” economy.”
It is very likely that the US economy likely created jobs at a record rate in June as more restaurants and bars resumed operations, which would offer further evidence that the C-19 coronavirus chaos-recession was probably over.
The US Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment report Thursday would add to a stream of data, including consumer spending, showing a sharp rebound in activity.
Several states have been scaling back or pausing reopenings since late June and sent some workers home. The impact of these decisions will not show up in the employment data as the government surveyed businesses in the middle of the month.
“As the US economy reopens millions of the jobs lost to the virus shutdown have come back and business activity is coming back too,” Economist Bruce WD Barren said in a telephone interview early Thursday
He went on to say, “The problem is that the virus still has a big say in determining the trajectory of the recovery, many people are still afraid and opting to stay shut in.”
And according to a Reuters survey of economists, NFPs likely increased by 3-M + jobs in June, which would be the most since the government started keeping records in Y 1939. Payrolls rebounded 2.5-M in May after plunging by a historic 21-M in April in the wake of the C-19 coronavirus chaos led instant recession.
President Trump notes that employment is increasing largely as companies rehire workers laid off when non-essential businesses like restaurants, bars, gyms and dental offices among others were closed to slow the spread of The China Virus.
Economists attribute the spike in job gains to the government’s Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), giving businesses loans that can be partially forgiven if used for wages. There are still billions left to help and more aid/relief/stimulus this Summer.
Have a healthy day, Keep the Faith!