Speculations are getting wild about election results and how they affect the markets. Many other aspects come into play and a heated emotional debate is in play since one’s political affiliation might trigger more emotions…. Stop! Any debate in one’s mind is not helpful for market play. Surprise news typically initiate perfect storms in the market. This is not the case right now. We don’t have certainty in who will be president just yet, but there are plenty of educated guesses already incorporated in market prices. Elections do not come as a surprise. The perfect storm?
With so many aspects influencing the “markets weather”, it is best to keep it simple.
What can price do over the next few weeks?
For one, it might just cruse sideways right through this, having absorbed speculative data already, meaning nothing happens. Secondly, we again might see a sideways movement of price ranges but with increased volatility. This could easily be a trading environment not conducive to easily extracting profits out of the market. Or we get a directional movement, maybe even the perfect storm. Then what?
In a small way, we get a similar event eight times a year, the FOMC meeting. Like elections, an event announced but not transparent in the entirety of its outcome. If you look back at these events you will find one trading strategy to be working out in a high probability for the outcome of a strong directional move. Once the announcement is made markets make a rapid price move in a direction. This move gets faded and bounces back almost 100% to its origin price level before the publication. From there it then again rushes in the direction of its first push. We call this the “One, two, three” play. It is specifically designed for strong directional moves that are preceded by announced news releases as well as for perfect storm scenarios.
Our volume analysis shows a recent confirmation of trend direction change with the break of US$27.22. We anticipate a possibly volatile month of November with high likely entries anticipatory within that month or confirmed long entries in December (January). Our preferred entry zone (yellow circle) is between US$20.17 and US$22.43.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 23.66.
The projected upper bound is: 25.72.
The projected lower bound is: 21.90.
The projected closing price is: 23.81.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 48.2484. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.51. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 27 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAG= closed up 0.233 at 23.863. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 53% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 23.630 24.022 23.370 23.863 8,146
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 24.21 25.23 19.94 Volatility: 35 49 57 Volume: 815 163 41
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAG= is currently 19.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAG= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAG= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.