Predictions for 2020 from Saxo Bank

The Big Q: Bored by the endless procession of prosaic Y 2020 outlooks from Wall Street?

The Big A: Saxo Bank has just issued its 10 outrageous predictions for next year.

Anticipating 12 months marked by “disruption of the status quo” at “nearly every turn,” the Danish bank argues that investors should be ready for anything.

That includes the following:

  1. UK nominal growth doubling to 8%
  2. Stagflation taking hold, rewarding value over growth stocks
  3. ECB hiking rates
  4. Oil and Gas industry emerging as surprise winners amid the mania over ESG
  5. USDZAR rising from 15 to 20 as the world cuts credit lines to South Africa
  6. President Trump announcing America First Tax to reduce trade deficit
  7. Sweden unleashing “huge fiscal stimulus” to quell anti-immigrant sentiment, driving a steep rally in the Krona
  8. Hungary leaving the EU
  9. Asia launching new reserve currency to break its USD dependence

The end of the populist fightback, finance ministers taking the baton from central bankers, and Green finance losing its clout all “could represent one big pendulum swing,” according to the team led by the bank’s Chief Economist

Inevitably the outcomes that prove the most disruptive are those that are a surprise to consensus,” they write.

If Y 2019 is anything to go by, they may be onto something. Contrarian calls for this year like the Fed cutting rates actually came true.

Stay tuned..

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