Manufacturing, Labor Market Data Signal Slowing Economy


Initial claims for the week ending 16 November were unchanged at 227,000 (consensus 216,000). Continuing claims for the week ending 9 November were up 3,000 to 1.695-M.

  • The Key takeaway from the report is that initial claims have been more elevated than usual in recent weeks, suggesting perhaps that they have reached their cyclical bottom. Even so, they remain at relatively low marks.

The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined 0.1% in October, in-line with the consensus estimate. The reading for September was revised down to -0.2% (from -0.1%). The October reading was the third straight monthly decline in the Leading Economic Index.

  • The Key takeaway from the report is that the 3rd straight monthly decline left the LEI’s 6-month growth (-0.1%) in slightly negative territory, which is the 1st entry into negative territory since May 2016.
  • The Philadelphia Fed Index for November increased to 10.4 (consensus 5.5) from the 5.6 in October

The reports added to last week’s downbeat October retail sales and manufacturing output data in suggesting the economy lost speed in Q-4.

This is no time for complacency, but it’s not time to panic either,” said a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Thursday, the major US stock market indexes finished at: DJIA -54.80 at 27766.20, NAS Comp -20.52 at 8506.21, S&P 500 -4.92 at 3103.54

Volume: Trade on the NYSE came in at 828-B/shares exchanged

  • NAS Comp +28.2% YTD
  • S&P 500 +23.8% YTD
  • DJIA+19.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +17.5% YTD

HeffX-LTN’s overall technical outlook for the US stock market indexes is Bullish to Very Bullish in here.

Looking ahead, investors will receive the revised reading for the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment (MSI) for November Friday.

Stay tuned…