Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US Dollar Breaks Down Against Japanese Yen

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) US Dollar Breaks Down Against Japanese Yen

The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday but gave back the gains as we continue to see risk go back and forth in the markets overall.

The US dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, as the ¥107.50 level continues to cause major issues. At this point, it looks as if the market is probably going to continue to struggle, as the risk appetite out there continues to be a major issue. I think at this point it’s very likely that we see the market try to reach down towards the ¥105 level, and with the jobs number coming out during the trading session on Friday, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of noise in general. I do believe that the market continues to see a lot of negativity in general, and this type of volatility certainly has people very rattled. It only takes a random headline to get the markets selling off yet again. With the jobs never going on Friday there is the possibility that we will continue to see massive swings in one direction or the other.

To the upside, if the daily candlestick breaks above the ¥107.50 level, then it’s possible that we go higher. Having said that, the larger consolidation area between the ¥105 level and the ¥115 level is what longer-term players are paying attention to. It certainly looks as if we are going to try to get back down to that lower level, but it doesn’t necessarily mean we need to do it in the next candle. This could be more of a choppy descent which would make sense considering the massive amount of selling pressure that we have seen as of late. Fading rallies could make sense.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 109.15.

The projected upper bound is: 108.17.

The projected lower bound is: 105.11.

The projected closing price is: 106.64.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 9.3601. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 31.86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -125.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.820 at 106.700. Volume was 21% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 176% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
107.520 107.730 106.590 106.700 103,648
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 109.02 109.41 108.36
Volatility: 11 9 7
Volume: 124,689 89,460 88,515

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 1.5% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of JPY= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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