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Japan exports and imports continued to fall as the country’s economy continued to recover. According to the Ministry of Finance, the country’s exports declined by 4.9% to ¥6.05 trillion. This decline was worse than the 2.9% that economists were expecting. Still, it was better than August’s decline of 14.8%. It was also the best figure the country has recorded in seven months.
However, Japan’s exports have declined for the past 22 consecutive months. This decline has been because of less vehicle and machinery exports. It is also because of the mini trade war between the country and South Korea, one of its biggest trading partner.
In the same month, the country’s imports declined for the 17th consecutive month. Total imports declined by 17.2% to ¥5.38 trillion. In September 2019, the country imported goods worth more than ¥6.49 trillion. The contraction was slightly better than the expected decline of 21.4%.
As a result, Japan’s trade surplus rose to ¥675 billion from the previous ¥248 billion. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting this surplus to increase to ¥989 billion. For starters, trade surplus is the difference between exports and imports.
Exports to other Asian countries dropped by 2% while those to North America rose by 2.0%. Notably, exports to the United States rose by 0.7% while those to China rose by 14%. In Western Europe, the exports fell by 6.4% while to the Middle East fell by 38.3%.
Economists believe that the Japanese government will need to pass extra spending to accelerate the recovery. The government has so far provided more than $3 trillion in stimulus. Indeed, according to government sources, the new Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga is expected to order his government to come up with more support. However, the risk is that the country’s national debt, will continue rising. It is now at about 215% of GDP.
USD/JPY Dollar Exchange Rate
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Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 106.41.
The projected lower bound is: 104.31.
The projected closing price is: 105.36.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 46.7484. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.98. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 56 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -52. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.030 at 105.370. Volume was 71% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 55% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 105.380 105.500 105.320 105.370 28,659
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 105.53 105.74 107.34 Volatility: 4 6 12 Volume: 92,987 96,047 110,525
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.
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