Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) Target 103.30

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Japanese Yen
Ticker: JPY=
Price: 105.11

Outlook

USD/JPY slumps lower for the 3rd straight session to hit 2-week lows below 106 handle.

The major was trading 0.36% lower on the day at 105.61 at around 10:15 GMT after closing 0.51% lower in the previous session.

The greenback depressed amid continued deadlock in U.S. stimulus negotiations and caution ahead of FOMC minutes (due Wed).

Price action has slipped below 20-DMA and technical indicators suggest downside resumption.

Focus shall be on Wednesday’s release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes for clues about anticipated shift in the policy outlook.  

On the data front, U.S. building permits, housing starts, and redbook data will be watched for impetus.  

Little support seen till lower Bollinger band at 104.62. Further weakness will see dip till Channel base at 103.30.

USD/JPY Dollar Exchange Rate

Today’s Forex Rates

USD/JPY Dollar FX Polls

Economic Events

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 106.16.

The projected lower bound is: 104.00.

The projected closing price is: 105.08.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 11 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 5.3609. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.57. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -118.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.300 at 105.120. Volume was 91% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 4% wider than normal.

Open      High      Low       Close       Volume
105.400   105.480   105.090   105.120     9,806
Technical Outlook
Short Term:        Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term:         Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period      200-period
Close:           106.08        106.65         108.06
Volatility:      7             6              12
Volume:          78,367        99,433         105,797

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX JPY= is currently 2.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.

Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 45 periods.

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