Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) is now near important retracement territory

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY (JPY=X) is now near important retracement territory

The Japanese Yen has made gains on a broadly weaker US Dollar for the past week, but USD/JPY is now closing in on a key support area.

Fundamentally, investors have been rethinking some of their Dollar-long positions as they weigh up the dawning US corporate earnings season’s chances. Technically USD/JPY now sits just atop a band of support formed by the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracements of its rise from the lows of March 9 to the highs of March 25 -unsurpassed since.

They come in at 107.69 and 106.35, respectively and between them is a band in which the market has been reluctant to linger in the recent past. It traded out of it to the upside after four days following March 13, and in just one day on March 31.

Right now the pair seems to be in the grip of a downtrend from those late March highs, itself merely an acceleration of the longer-term downtrend from February 20.

With that in mind it might be as well to watch the fate of that trading band again, with the direction of any break likely to offer broader directional clues. However, bear in mind that broad downtrend resistance doesn’t come in until 111.31 at this point, way above the market.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 111.01.

The projected lower bound is: 104.11.

The projected closing price is: 107.56.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 14.2544. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -85. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX JPY= closed down -0.160 at 107.600. Volume was 76% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 22% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
107.760 107.790 107.520 107.600 25,242
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 108.25 108.68 108.33
Volatility: 9 21 12
Volume: 135,212 132,873 97,616

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX JPY= is currently 0.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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