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Japanese Yen Outlook
The USD/JPY hit the daily low in early trade in the European session. However, the move lacked strong follow-through. USD/JPY trades mildly higher around104.50
USD/JPY failed to capitalize on early gains with sellers coming in around 25-30 pips from the intraday high of 104.75. Risk aversion took over amid fading hopes about a pre-election US fiscal stimulus package underpinning the safe-haven Japanese yen and limiting meaningful upside for USD/JPY.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will continue discussions with the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. She remains optimistic about reaching a deal. However, she also acknowledged that the November 3rd deadline could be too tight. Concerns also rose over Congress’ ability to overcome strong opposition from Senate Republicans over such a large stimulus bill.
Furthermore, US President Trump accused Democrats of being unwilling to compromise on stimulus. All of this is playing out amid US political uncertainty, which is keeping the bulls from placing aggressive bets on USD/JPY. An increase in demand for the US dollar offered support and helped cap deeper losses.
Nevertheless, the USD/JPY trades close to its one-month lows, around 104.35 hit on Wednesday. The final presidential debate between President Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden is now in focus in addition to US Initial Weekly Jobless Claims.
USD/JPY Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
USD/JPY Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 105.88.
The projected upper bound is: 105.74.
The projected lower bound is: 103.58.
The projected closing price is: 104.66.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 26.2910. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.47. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 60 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -139.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX JPY= closed down -0.120 at 104.700. Volume was 59% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 31% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 104.830 104.930 104.650 104.700 40,183
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 105.18 105.60 107.24 Volatility: 6 7 12 Volume: 88,698 97,457 111,041
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX JPY= is currently 2.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of JPY= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on JPY= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.
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