How Many iPhone 12 Smartphones Does Apple Need to Sell to Keep Investors Happy?

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Apple
Ticker: NASDAQ:AAPL
Price: $113.85

Apple News

Apple Inc. has a market cap of $2 trillion, the largest of any company in America. Shares of the iPhone maker have surged 60% this year, compared to 10% for the S&P 500. Despite its size, Apple is a one-product company, as far as many investors are concerned.

Apple recently reported quarterly revenue of $64.7 billion, with net income of $12.7 billion. It sold $9.0 billion worth of Macs, $6.8 billion of iPads and $7.9 billion of accessories and home equipment, and its fast-growing services business posted revenue of $14.5 billion. However, the iPhone’s revenue was by far the largest of any product line at $26.4 billion. Wall Street is counting on future iPhone revenue to keep Apple’s stock moving upward.

For a period, investors believed that they could count on the Services business to be Apple’s growth driver. It was a fair assumption. This business includes the App Store, the iCloud service, iTunes, Apple TV and the Apple Pay commerce business. Services is Apple’s play to move beyond hardware.

The primary reason Apple’s stock has surged, however, is hope for iPhone 12 sales. The latest generation of the smartphone is considered a larger improvement over past models than has been true in years. It may begin what analysts call a “supercycle,” in which much of Apple’s iPhone owner base upgrades versions they have had for several years. If this happens, iPhone sales may hit an all-time record and give an extraordinary boost to revenue.

iPhone sales are expected to be strong, particularly in the short term, for two reasons. The first is that the iPhone 12 will work on new superfast 5G networks. The second is that the iPhone 12 was released just ahead of the holidays, when consumer electronics sales are always at an annual peak.

How many iPhone 12 smartphones does Apple need to sell to keep investors happy? Certainly several million by the end of the year. Analysts have a broad range of estimates.

Sales will need to be at the high end of those to keep Apple’s stock moving in a positive direction.

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Business Summary

Apple Inc. designs, manufactures and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers and portable digital music players.

The Company sells a range of related software, services, accessories, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications.

The Company’s segments include the Americas, Europe, Greater China, Japan and Rest of Asia Pacific.

The Americas segment includes both North and South America. The Europe segment includes European countries, India, the Middle East and Africa.

The Greater China segment includes China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

The Rest of Asia Pacific segment includes Australia and the Asian countries not included in the Company’s other operating segments.

Its products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple Watch, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, iPhone OS (iOS), OS X and watchOS operating systems, iCloud, Apple Pay and a range of accessory, service and support offerings.

Price Performance

Relative Valuation

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 122.16.

The projected lower bound is: 105.48.

The projected closing price is: 113.82.

Candlesticks

A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “high,” it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 16.0951. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.23. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 56 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -154.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

APPLE INC closed down -3.490 at 113.850. Volume was 18% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 30% narrower than normal.

Open     High     Low     Close      Volume
117.180  117.620  113.750 113.850    127,959,320
Technical Outlook
Short Term:        Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term:         Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close:           118.15        115.40        93.70
Volatility:      28            46            61
Volume:          95,281,024    132,892,408   167,232,528

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

APPLE INC is currently 21.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.

Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AAPL.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on AAPL.O and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.

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