British Pound Outlook
The British Pound recorded its strongest daily gain against the U.S. Dollar, Euro and other major peers since March amidst an upsurge in optimism that the EU and UK were headed towards a post-Brexit trade deal.
The Pound rose sharply after it was confirmed the EU and UK had agreed to intensify negotiations to the extent they would take place every day, and even on weekends, until a deal is achieved.
Sterling rose above 1.31 against the Dollar and closed in on 1.11 against the Euro after the EU and UK released a joint statement detailing the nature of further negotiations.
“The parties have agreed to intensify negotiations. Talks will take place across all negotiating tables concurrently. Negotiations will take place daily including weekends, unless both sides agree otherwise,” said the statement.
Economists at HEFFX see a 60% probability of a deal being reached, which appears to be lower than the odds assigned by the market given the recent move higher in Sterling.
Positioning in Sterling is meanwhile said to be light which mitigates against any technical-based flows.
GBP/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
GBP/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.34.
The projected lower bound is: 1.29.
The projected closing price is: 1.31.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 77.8442. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 61.44. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 46 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 204.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed up 0.000 at 1.314. Volume was 61% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 28% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.315 1.315 1.312 1.314 51,364
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.30 1.30 1.27 Volatility: 13 12 14 Volume: 130,819 133,562 127,890
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 3.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term.
Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into GBP= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.