Despite the recent run-up in gold prices, we believe gold remains attractively valued – one might even say cheap – in the context of historically low real interest rates.
The key risk is that real interest rates rise, making gold relatively less attractive. At current valuations, however, there is some cushion against this view, with the real-yield-adjusted gold price at the lower end of its range for the last 15 years.
Our base case is that rates remain relatively range-bound; this outlook, combined with our view that momentum and interest in gold causes the real-yield-adjusted gold price to move higher, points to gold still having more upside from here.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 2,009.38.
The projected lower bound is: 1,858.99.
The projected closing price is: 1,934.19.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 32 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 14 white candles.
A hammer occurred (a hammer has a long lower shadow and closes near the high). Hammers must appear after a significant decline or when prices are oversold (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAU=) to be valid. When this occurs, it usually indicates the formation of a support level and is thus considered a bullish pattern.
A hanging man occurred (a hanging man has a very long lower shadow and a small real body). This pattern can be bullish or bearish, depending on the trend. If it occurs during an uptrend it is called a hanging man line and signifies a reversal top. If it occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAU=) it is called a bullish hammer.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 22.7520. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed down -2.327 at 1,930.123. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 35% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1,932.402 1,932.853 1,924.500 1,930.123 8,967
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1,947.52 1,871.24 1,671.92 Volatility: 29 25 22 Volume: 897 179 45
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 15.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAU= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.