Gold price are holding on to strong gains but is seeing little reaction to falling momentum in the U.S. labor market as more workers apply for first-time unemployment benefits.
Thursday the U.S. Labor Department said that weekly jobless claims rose by 23,000 to 885,000, up from the previous week’s revised estimate of 853,000 claims.
The latest labor market data missed economists’ estimates as consensus forecasts called for initial claims to be round 817,000.
The gold market is seeing little reaction to the latest economic report as it continues to see strong buying after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The central bank signaled that it would maintain its extremely accommodative monetary policies for foreseeable future. February gold futures last traded at $1,886.30 an ounce, up 1.46% on the day.
The four-week moving average for new claims – often viewed as a more reliable measure of the labor market since it flattens week-to-week volatility – rose 812,500, an increase of 34,250 claims from the previous week.
Continuing jobless claims, which represent the number of people already receiving benefits, were at 5.508 million during the week ending Dec. 5, down by 273,000 from the previous week.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1,945.94.
The projected lower bound is: 1,819.48.
The projected closing price is: 1,882.71.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 88.2074. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.55. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 155.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed down -2.240 at 1,883.630. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 1% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1,885.410 1,886.060 1,882.350 1,883.630 2,285
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1,856.28 1,871.04 1,815.05 Volatility: 18 21 23 Volume: 229 46 11
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 3.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish).
Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.