Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Federal Reserve announcement today

Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) Federal Reserve announcement today

The Euro initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday but has rolled over after Mario Draghi suggested that the ECB was opened to more quantitative easing.

This of course put bearish pressure on the Euro itself, and therefore has the market repricing where the common currency should be. However, Wednesday features a statement out of the FOMC, and it is expected to be dovish as well. This will more than likely drive the pair back and forth.

At the end of the day, I expect this to be a big “nothing burger”, as both central banks will compete to see who can be weaker. With that, the 1.11 level underneath should be supportive, just as the 1.1350 level will be resistive. While I was talking about a “W pattern” just a few days ago, and now it looks like we may forgo that and simply go back and forth.

That would make sense considering that it’s summertime, and a lot of volatility can be socked out of the markets. If central banks around the world are trying to kill off their currencies, and then becomes a “race to the bottom”, as we enter a new phase of the currency wars, or perhaps better put: a new round of the same. At this point, I suspect that we will see a lot of volatility ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, and then simply watch the market settle in this range again.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.13.

The projected lower bound is: 1.11.

The projected closing price is: 1.12.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 8.4445. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.19. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 218 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX EUR= closed down -0.002 at 1.119. Volume was 47% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 29% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1.122 1.124 1.118 1.119 62,458

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.13 1.12 1.14
Volatility: 7 5 7
Volume: 76,846 100,518 131,545

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX EUR= is currently 1.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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