Euro: USD/EUR (EUR=X) busy week ahead
It’s a particularly busy week ahead. Germany wholesale inflation and Eurozone consumer confidence numbers are due out in the early part of the week.
Expect the EUR to be particularly sensitive to consumer confidence numbers.
A data deluge on Thursday will be key in the week. Finalized German GDP numbers, prelim May private-sector PMI numbers and German business sentiment figures are due out.
We will expect the focus to be on Germany’s GDP, manufacturing and business climate index figures.
Outside of the stats, ECB President Draghi speaks on Tuesday ahead of the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes due out on Thursday.
The EUR/USD ended the week down 0.67% to $1.1158.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.12.
The projected lower bound is: 1.11.
The projected closing price is: 1.12.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 5.7876. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.07. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 197 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -148.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.000 at 1.115. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 44% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.116 1.117 1.115 1.115 573
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.12 1.12 1.14
Volatility: 3 5 7
Volume: 101,419 120,722 136,421
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 2.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.