The euro to United States dollar (EUR/USD) rate fluctuated between highs of $1.13 and lows of $1.12 last week as risk-off market mood grew on fears of America facing a second wave of coronavirus cases.
Monday also saw the eurozone’s economic data weigh down the Euro (EUR) with Germany’s factory orders for may failing to impress despite rising by 10.4%.
The Eurozone’s retail sales figures for May – also released on Monday – failed to buoy the single currency, with retail sales in the bloc rising considerably from -12.1% to 17.8% month-on-month.
Heffx said in its report:
‘[This] data release confirmed that while sales remained below February levels in France and Spain, in Germany – which lifted its lockdown earlier – they rose above February levels. So June may possibly have been a very good month for sales elsewhere.’
Monday’s unleash of the United States ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July gave hopes for America’s economic recovery within the months ahead. The figure rose from 45.4 to 57.1, leaving many investors optimistic that the world’s largest economy might be on the road to recovery.
Heffx wrote in its report:
‘The reopenings have led to a sharp rebound in activity, however new localised Covid-19 outbreaks have cast a renewed cloud over the global economic outlook for the second half of the year. [However,] Covid-19 infections and hospitalisations are on the rise in many states, leading to fears that the recovery could falter in response to renewed restrictions and consumer caution.’
The United States dollar (USD) mainly benefited from concerns over the global economy as nations like Australia renewed their lockdowns amid fears of a second wave of coronavirus infections. Consequently, the safe haven ‘Greenback’ received a boost as investors fled from risker assets.
Thursday’s release of the United States Initial jobless Claims in July, that fell from 1500.25 thousand to 1437.25 thousand, continued to add pressure on the United States economy. With unemployment still high, this failed to buoy hopes for America’s jobs sector.
The EUR/USD exchange rate edged higher on Friday despite rising fears over the Eurozone’s economy. This followed reports from the european Commission that the bloc might be headed for a deeper recession than was previously forecast.
EUR/USD Outlook: might an improving United States Economy Weaken the ‘Greenback’s Safe-Haven Gains?
US dollar (USD) investors are going to be looking ahead to Monday’s speech by John C Williams, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. If he is notably dovish concerning America’s economic performance, we could see the ‘Greenback’ benefit as risk-sentiment tumbles.
EUR traders will be awaiting Tuesday’s release of Germany’s inflation data for June. Any signs of an uptick in the harmonized Index of consumer costs in June would prove EUR-positive.
Tuesday will also see the release of Germany’s ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment. Any improvement in the Eurozone’s powerhouse economy’s economic morale would prove EUR-positive.
US dollar (USD) investors are going to be looking ahead to Tuesday’s release of the final inflation figures for June. If these continue to remain downbeat, then we could see the USD suffer as concerns for America’s economic prowess grow.
Thursday’s European central bank (ECB) interest rate decision will be in focus this week. but with the bank expected to hold rates at 0% the EUR/USD exchange rate might suffer.
Any dovishness in the ECB’s monetary Policy statement would also prove EUR-negative.
Friday’s publication of the flash Michigan consumer Sentiment Index for July is forecast to rise from 78.1 to 80. As a result, we could see the United States dollar suffer as the world’s economy improves. This could mean investors would seek out riskier assets instead.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
Euro/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1.15.
The projected lower bound is: 1.12.
The projected closing price is: 1.13.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 7 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 48.0099. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 15 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 103.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.002 at 1.132. Volume was 91% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 65% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.130 1.133 1.130 1.132 10,807
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.13 1.11 1.10 Volatility: 6 8 9 Volume: 98,370 112,239 90,780
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 2.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.