The EUR/USD pair has surged to 1.1915 this Thursday, its highest in two years, amid persistent dollar’s weakness. The market’s mood turned sour throughout the first half of the day, giving the dollar a brief intraday respite. however, the pair is ending a third consecutive day with gains a handful of pips below the 1.1900 mark. issues surrounding the United States currency remain the same, with the main focus on tensions with China, the upcoming coronavirus aid package and economic growth.
In the data front, Germany published June factory Orders, that were much better than anticipated, surging in the month 27.9%. In comparison to a year earlier, orders declined 11.3% against the -34% expected. The United States published some employment-related figures, relevant prior to the Nonfarm Payroll report. Initial jobless Claims improved to 1.18M in the week ended July 31, although United States employers announced 262,649 job cuts in the month, up 54% from June, according to the challenger Job Cuts report.
As for the United States NFP report, the market expects that the United States has added 1.6 million jobs in July, when adding 4.8 million in the previous month. The unemployment rate is predicted to have shrunk from 11.1% to 10.5%, although the participation rate is also seen down, from 61.5% to 61.1%.
EUR/USD short-term technical outlook
The EUR/USD pair is overbought, but still heading north according to intraday readings. The 4-hour chart shows that a mildly optimistic 20 SMA, attracted buyers, providing an immediate support level at around 1.1810 now. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within positive levels, the Momentum holding at highs and the RSI losing strength around 58. Overall, the risk remains skewed to the upside, with another attempt above 1.1910 probably anticipating higher highs ahead.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
Euro/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.15.
The projected upper bound is: 1.20.
The projected lower bound is: 1.17.
The projected closing price is: 1.19.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 13 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.6588. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 74.08. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 41 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 97. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed down -0.001 at 1.186. Volume was 86% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 84% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.188 1.188 1.186 1.186 15,610
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.18 1.14 1.11 Volatility: 8 8 9 Volume: 96,632 111,112 93,571
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 6.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into EUR= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that EUR= is currently in an overbought condition.