The recent rally that the EUR to USD pair has experienced is at risk of reversal amid a lack of clear conviction among the bulls to bid the pair past the 1.1870 – 1.1880 resistance band. The EUR/USD can now enter a consolidation phase as sellers continue to lurk near the Monday’s opening price at 1.1838. If the EUR/USD sellers can manage to defend last week’s high of 1.1916, we can be in the stage of developing a short-term topping pattern.
On the economic data front, investors are bracing for a series of key risk events that have the potential to give more clarity to the price action. On Wednesday, the FOMC minutes will reveal more info on its forward guidance policy adoption. The FOMC is followed by the ECB’s monetary policy accounts on Thursday and the preliminary PMIs data for the US and EU’s economies.
Another market theme worthy of consideration is the resumption of the EU-UK post-Brexit trade negotiations.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
Euro/US Dollar FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 1.20.
The projected lower bound is: 1.18.
The projected closing price is: 1.19.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 18 black candles for a net of 13 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 92.9719. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 69.29. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 125.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.001 at 1.188. Volume was 92% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 13% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.187 1.188 1.186 1.188 8,748
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.18 1.15 1.11 Volatility: 7 8 9 Volume: 86,737 107,129 94,356
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 6.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into EUR= (mildly bullish).
Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 24 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.