The dollar slipped on Thursday, surrendering gains made before the New York session, as rebounding stocks received a lift from a CNBC report of renewed COVID relief talks, diminishing safe-haven demand for the U.S. currency.
Unexpectedly high weekly jobless claims initially added to the pandemic angst weighing on riskier assets.
The sentiment was buoyed by the above-forecast existing homes sales data as a COVID-related urban exodus and historically low mortgage rates sent sales to their highest 2007, prices up an annual 19.8%, and supplies to their tightest ever. The COVID relief news gave stocks an added late-day boost.
Fed officials were beating the drum again for further fiscal relief, echoing ECB President Christine Lagarde’s plea for fast approval and deployment of EU aid being held up by Polish and Hungarian objections.
Markets expect relief deals eventually but suspect the Fed and ECB may act in the interim to mitigate pandemic damage before vaccines are widely distributed. Record-low 10-year BTP yields suggest investors see the ECB and the EU keeping financing costs extremely low.
This month’s EUR/USD rally, capped off by the Nov. 9 vaccine news day peak of 1.1920 on EBS, is showing signs of fatigue above 1.1900, perhaps from IMM net spec longs still using rallies to take profits.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
EUR/USD FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.17.
The projected upper bound is: 1.20.
The projected lower bound is: 1.17.
The projected closing price is: 1.19.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 3 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 1 white candles.
A doji star occurred (where a doji gaps above or below the previous candle). This often signals a reversal with confirmation occurring on the next bar.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 74.4411. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.02. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 67 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 88. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.187. Volume was 87% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 8% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.187 1.188 1.186 1.187 13,763
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.18 1.18 1.14 Volatility: 4 7 10 Volume: 114,141 107,220 109,902
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 4.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral).
Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.