The euro initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to see bullish pressure, but did give back some of the gains to show that perhaps gravity is coming back into vogue. The 1.20 level underneath will continue to be significant support, based on the fact that it was previously resisted. It was the scene from which we broke out recently, and now it looks as if we are ready to test that level for potential support, perhaps extending all the way down to the 1.19 level, which was the beginning of that zone. But even more interesting about the 1.19 level is the fact that the 50-day EMA sits just below it, which will offer a certain amount of support as well.
Keep in mind that Brexit is still going on, and those headlines could have an influence on the euro, not to mention the fact that the stimulus fight in Washington DC continues to devolve into a playground. The most recent headline was McConnell whining that the Democrats rejected the last two GOP proposals, and the Democrats admitted that they were stalling all throughout summer and fall because of the pending presidential election.
It is clear that we have more drama ahead of us, and that tends to make people cautious about taking risk. If we do not get stimulus, than people may not try to devalue the greenback. I do not think that will be the case in the long term, and eventually they will do what all governments do: spend money. But obviously we have a lot of political posturing to do between now and then. Furthermore, the Senate runoff races in Georgia will keep everything tense as well, not to mention the lawsuit that Texas and seventeen other states have filed with the Supreme Court against the four swing states that have caused so much havoc with the electoral process. I understand that most media are not covering this, but the fact that the Supreme Court has taken up that case makes things all the more potentially ugly.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
EUR/USD FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.19.
The projected upper bound is: 1.23.
The projected lower bound is: 1.20.
The projected closing price is: 1.22.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 57.0199. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 71.12. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.002 at 1.215. Volume was 91% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 70% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.214 1.216 1.213 1.215 9,419
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.21 1.19 1.15 Volatility: 8 7 9 Volume: 106,285 106,661 110,966
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 6.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral).
Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 25 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that EUR= is currently in an overbought condition. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.