The dollar is mildly weaker as we get things underway in European morning trade today, with major currencies tilting slightly in the same direction as equities for now.
The more upbeat tone in European and US futures is helping to pin the dollar a little lower with EUR/USD up about 15 pips near 1.1850 to start the session.
Price action shows that the near-term bias is keeping more bullish on a break above the 100-hour MA (red line) since Friday but gains aren’t running away just yet with key resistance still seen closer towards 1.1900 – where the upside stalled last week.
But for now, near-term support can be defined by the confluence of the key hourly moving averages @ 1.1809-13. Keep above that and the bias stays more bullish but break below that the bias then turns more bearish instead.
The market is filled with contrasting narratives at the moment and it is all about the push and pull to see who comes out on top.
An argument can be made for risk-off on rising coronavirus cases in Europe and the US with central banks also turning more pessimistic ahead of the year-end. Fiscal hopes are also fading and there is the likelihood of tighter restrictions to follow as well.
On the flip side, vaccine optimism and easy money continue to drive flows into risky assets. Moderna may announce an update on their vaccine trial data this week, so investors may be looking to that to drive further gains akin to the Pfizer news last week.
Hope versus fear. That is likely to emerge as the key theme this week. Pick your side.
Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
Today’s Forex Rates
EUR/USD FX Polls
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1.17.
The projected upper bound is: 1.20.
The projected lower bound is: 1.17.
The projected closing price is: 1.19.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 73.0498. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 64 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 87. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX EUR= closed up 0.000 at 1.186. Volume was 83% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 1.185 1.187 1.185 1.186 17,118
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 1.18 1.18 1.14 Volatility: 7 7 10 Volume: 121,595 106,494 109,359
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX EUR= is currently 4.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of EUR= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on EUR= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.