Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) price remains at a risk of another drop below the $165

Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) price remains at a risk of another drop below the $165

Yesterday, we saw a nasty decline in bitcoin, Ethereum, ripple, and major other cryptocurrencies against the US Dollar. ETH price nosedived below the $185 support and traded close to the $150 level. Moreover, there was a close below the $180 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. A swing low was formed near $152 and the price recently started an upside correction.

It recovered above the $160 and $165 levels. Additionally, there was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $211 high to $152 low. The price even traded above the $170 level. However, it struggled to clear the $175 level. It seems like yesterday’s highlighted key bearish trend line is still active with resistance near $172 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD.

If the price breaks the trend line resistance and $175, there could be a decent recovery. The next key resistance is near the $182 level. It coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $211 high to $152 low. However, the main resistance for a trend change is near the $185 level. The stated $185 level has acted as a support and resistances on many occasions. Therefore, a close above $185 is needed for a strong recovery.

On the other hand, the price could resume its decline below $165. An immediate support is near the $160 level. If there is a downside break below the $160 level, the price could accelerate towards the $150 level in the coming sessions.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 193.79.

The projected lower bound is: 142.40.

The projected closing price is: 168.10.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 35.5390. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.65. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -108.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX ETH= closed down -0.560 at 169.220. Volume was 54% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 10% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
171.030 173.830 166.680 169.220 31,790
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 199.37 189.44 207.25
Volatility: 141 87 88
Volume: 82,721 67,086 62,976

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX ETH= is currently 18.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of ETH= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on ETH= and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.

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