Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) likely to face a strong resistance near the $164 and $165 levels
Yesterday, we saw a massive decline in Ethereum below the $170 and $165 support levels against the US Dollar. Moreover, ETH price settled below the $165 support and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
It opened the doors for more losses and the price traded below the $160 support. Finally, there was a spike below $155 and the price traded as low as $153. Recently, it started an upside correction above the $155 and $158 levels.
Additionally, there was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $178 high to $153 low. Ethereum is currently consolidating above $160, but it is facing a lot of hurdles on the upside near the $164 and $165 levels.
More importantly, this week’s followed bearish trend line is still active with resistance near $164 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. The trend line coincides with the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $178 high to $153 low.
Besides, the 100 hourly SMA is also positioned near the $165 level. Therefore, an upside break above the $165 resistance is needed for a recovery towards the $170 and $172 resistance levels.
If the price fails to recover above the $164 and $165 resistance levels, it could resume its decline. An immediate support is near the $158 level, below which the price could revisit the $153 low. Any further losses might call for a break below the $150 support area.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 187.59.
The projected upper bound is: 185.60.
The projected lower bound is: 136.62.
The projected closing price is: 161.11.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 35.9159. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.69. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 35 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -148.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX ETH= closed up 0.330 at 161.330. Volume was 82% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 27% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
161.600 162.410 157.990 161.330 11,491
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 169.90 181.63 211.75
Volatility: 50 85 84
Volume: 44,628 69,290 66,197
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX ETH= is currently 23.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of ETH= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on ETH= and have had this outlook for the last 28 periods.