Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) Going Long May Cause Large Drop

Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) Going Long May Cause Large Drop

The Hong-Kong based crypto exchange had a substantial rise in long positions for ETH record a new all-time high, clocking in at an impressive 1.39 million. It’s actually quite remarkable, considering how bad the market’s going.

The sheer amount of investors betting on the upside is noteworthy amid this global crash of the economy. While the world is in the process of trying to recover, the coronavirus pandemic has wreaked havoc on the global economy. Should the financial industry receive another hard hit, it could lead to a long squeeze for Ethereum, pressuring traders to panic sell their assets for even more of a loss. The grim irony is the act of mass panic selling only further compounds the terrible market conditions.

Going Long May Cause Large Drop

While many are doubtlessly going long to try and profit from this fear-reigned era of the market, Ether is on a slippery slope at this point. Ether can stand to lose more ground with a long squeeze before it starts to gain ground again.

The TD sequential indicator has started to show warning signs, as is. Recently, it’s presented a sell signal through a green nine candlestick displayed on the 1-day chart on ETH. The bearish formation makes it clear that the giant of the crypto industry’s smart contract sector could suffer up to four candlesticks correction.

Ethereum has now officially dropped to the 23.6% level of Fibonacci retracement. This justifies the pessimistic outlook that the TD sequential index has presented, seemingly validating the grim outlook it portrayed. Should a candlestick close below this critical threshold of support, another downswing could occur, going down to 38.2% or even 50% Fib.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 191.75.

The projected lower bound is: 109.50.

The projected closing price is: 150.63.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 25.9618. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.23. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 19. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 22 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX ETH= closed down -11.000 at 153.000. Volume was 38% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 36% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
163.120 165.550 148.760 153.000 218,263
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 158.71 168.24 172.06
Volatility: 114 164 103
Volume: 457,804 461,235 192,044

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX ETH= is currently 11.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into ETH= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on ETH= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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