Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) Bears Break Out from Pennant Structure, Deeper Moves South Eyed
Ethereum price is being dictated mainly by the market bears, as it continues to remain weighted to the downside. It is running towards its second consecutive week in the red, as the price heads for a narrowing range breakout. ETH/USD has fallen some 10% during the noted period of decline, trading at the lowest level seen in four weeks. The price was dealt a harsh blow after a critically failed retest of a long-running ascending trend line.
The support had been providing needed comfort for the bulls from December 2018, before sellers forced a breach in August of this year. ETH/USD then dropped 17% over two weeks, before catching much-needed support. The buyers had swooped in within a known demand zone, $175 down to $155. Ethereum has not traded below this noted territory since April.
A retest of the noted trend line came into play on the week of 16th September, before the being then attacked by the bears. It played out to the textbook with the breakout and retest of the support. The price has failed to maintain any upside momentum since late June. Rallies continue to be sold, following such an initially promising start to the year.
Bearish Pennant Structure
Over the last eight trading weeks, price action has been moving within consolidation mode. During this, tight conditions formed a bearish pennant structure, which contained ETH/USD from 25th September up until 14th November. A breach occurred on 15th November, forcing a strong breakout; the retest was then seen on 17th November. Since the noted retest underneath the pattern and rejection, further selling pressure has followed.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 186.35.
The projected upper bound is: 192.50.
The projected lower bound is: 158.24.
The projected closing price is: 175.37.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 48.5319. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 40 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.80. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 61 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -127.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX ETH= closed up 1.120 at 175.410. Volume was 96% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 58% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
174.290 177.190 172.110 175.410 2,190
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 181.83 180.63 214.27
Volatility: 32 61 84
Volume: 33,123 52,008 65,998
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX ETH= is currently 18.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of ETH= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on ETH= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.