Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) Approaching Next Key Break

Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) Approaching Next Key Break

After a major drop in Ethereum, the $132 level acted as a decent support against the US Dollar. ETH traded as low as $132.10 and recently started an upside correction above the $140 zone.

Moreover, there was a break above the $150 level and the price spiked above the 55 simple moving average (4-hours). However, the bulls failed to clear the $158 and $160 resistance levels.

A high was formed near $158 and the price is currently trimming gains. It broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $132 low to $158 high. At the outset, the price is trading near the $148 support and the 55 simple moving average (4-hours).

Additionally, there is a major breakout pattern forming with support near $148 on the 4-hours chart. If there is a downside break below the $148 support, Ethereum is likely to resume its decline.

An immediate support is near the $144 level. Besides, the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $132 low to $158 high might act as a support.

If the bulls fail to protect $144, there is a risk of an extended decline towards the $138 support. It represents the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $132 low to $158 high.

The main support is near the $132 swing low, below which the price could decline towards $124. Conversely, the price could rally above the $150 and $152 resistance levels.

The first key resistance is near the $158 level, above which the price is likely to accelerate gains towards the $162 and $165 levels in the coming days.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 169.09.

The projected upper bound is: 162.81.

The projected lower bound is: 131.17.

The projected closing price is: 146.99.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A bullish harami occurred (where the current small white body is contained within an unusually large black body). During a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX ETH=) this pattern implies an end to the decline as the bears appear to have exhausted themselves.

During an uptrend the bullish harami pattern is bearish as the bears appear to be gaining strength as the bulls weaken.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 53.9689. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -76. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX ETH= closed up 0.240 at 147.520. Volume was 65% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 68% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
147.290 148.760 146.250 147.520 22,141
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 148.37 169.20 207.99
Volatility: 32 59 76
Volume: 66,899 55,440 65,826

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX ETH= is currently 29.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of ETH= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on ETH= and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods.

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