Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) and Bitcoin Cash Surge as Cryptocurrency Rally Widens

Ethereum: USD/ETH (ETH=) and Bitcoin Cash Surge as Cryptocurrency Rally Widens

Ethereum (ETHUSD) is up more than 5 percent in the last 24 hours, while Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD) has advanced 11 percent. ETHUSD is the world’s second-biggest cryptocurrency, accounting for almost 8 percent of the market. BCHUSD ranks No. 4 at less than 3 percent.

So-called altcoins, or alternatives to the original Bitcoin (BTCUSD), have outperformed since mid-January. That marks a change in sentiment from the previous two years, when they lagged BTCUSD by a wide margin.

It could be positive for cryptocurrencies because altcoins rose more than BTCUSD during the last bull market of 2016 and 2017. It’s similar to breadth in the stock market, when investors widen their buying into smaller companies as prices advance.

No single news event seems to explain the strength in altcoins, although attention seems to be returning to cryptos. Earlier this week, for instance, CNBC reported that BTCUSD had its best January in seven years.

Here Comes Halving

Google Trends also shows interest in the term “halving” has doubled since late November. Halving is technical change in BTCUSD that will slow the supply of new tokens. Expected on May 12, this process has previously had a positive impact on prices.

Crypto watchers like Tom Lee and Mati Greenspan have also made bullish predictions in the last week. Lee said yesterday on Yahoo Finance that BTCUSD might triple after breaking above its 200-day moving average. On January 30, Greenspan said that $6 billion of new capital was poised to enter the market.

In conclusion, cryptocurrencies continue to recover from their big drops in 2018 and 2019. Strength in altcoins today suggests the process may be widening.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 168.45.

The projected upper bound is: 223.60.

The projected lower bound is: 191.22.

The projected closing price is: 207.41.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.

A hammer occurred (a hammer has a long lower shadow and closes near the high). Hammers must appear after a significant decline or when prices are oversold to be valid. When this occurs, it usually indicates the formation of a support level and is thus considered a bullish pattern.

A hanging man occurred (a hanging man has a very long lower shadow and a small real body). This pattern can be bullish or bearish, depending on the trend. If it occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX ETH=) it is called a hanging man line and signifies a reversal top. If it occurs during a downtrend it is called a bullish hammer.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 84.8656. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 75.50. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 153.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX ETH= closed down -0.710 at 205.900. Volume was 9% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 50% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
206.950 207.350 200.470 205.900 82,043
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 187.63 153.49 174.19
Volatility: 69 63 69
Volume: 116,559 88,799 69,601

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX ETH= is currently 18.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into ETH= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on ETH= and have had this outlook for the last 31 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that ETH= is currently in an overbought condition.

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