Perhaps the biggest mistakes that political analysts, especially those who spend a lot of time on Twitter (NYSE:TWTR), often make is they assume voters are as engaged in the process as they, and/or their audiences, are.
The reality is that, largely due to media fragmentation, the “average” American voter is even less educated in comparison to us news junkies, who have never had more information instantly available than what we can access today very easily.
Consequently, at 50% of the huge electorate for a Presidential general election has been, like it or not, paying very little, if any, attention to the race pre-conventions.
Any information they have gleaned from all the media coverage of specifically the Democratic contest has been accidental, and their base of knowledge would be roughly that of what the least enthusiastic person at the Super Bowl party.
It is notable that the vast majority of Democrats simply want to know who the best person for the job is, but through very little fault of their own, they are not being given the information with which to make that Key determination.
But, I blame the pollsters who have been very unimaginative and, overly PC (politically correct) in their methods, which have provided voters with mostly meaningless and deceiving data.
Below are some observations about how the polling industry is failing Democratic voters who just do not want to screw up what might be the biggest voting decision of their lives:
- National head-to-head polls are almost totally irrelevant, except maybe those between Slow Joe Biden and Trump the Lion, because huge portions of the general-election population do not really know much about any of the other Democratic candidates yet and because President Trump’s 2016 Electoral College advantage has rendered any margin over him that is less than 6 pts largely meaningless.
- Pollsters should completely drop the national head-to-head polls and instead do head-to-head polling only in the very Key states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and and a couple of others.
- When pollsters do head-to-head polling, they should be far more descriptive regarding the 2 choices rather than, at most, just labeling 1 person as a Democrat and Donald Trump as a Republican. Adding just a few Key words to each candidate when asking for a Presidential preference would likely produce a treasure trove of information about how a general election might go.
- Pollsters should have the courage to directly test how specific negative attacks, like those President Trump will use against Slow Joe Biden, and how it may impact his standing against President Trump in the Key states.
Specifically, pollsters should be testing not just a voter’s choice of candidate, but also their knowledge of critical facts about each person.
They should also be “push polling” each option providing potentially negative information about a candidate both before and after asking for their ultimate choice between Slow Joe Biden and Trump the Lion to gauge whether a certain line of attack would likely be effective.
If pollsters provided/tested the following information about the most prominent Democrats, it would either validate some very legitimate concerns about them or alleviate them.
- How did low-information voters finding out that Bernie Sanders is a 78 anni from Vermont who calls himself a Democratic socialist, and is not technically a member of the Democratic Party, impact his standing in Pennsylvania against President Trump? A lot.
- What did a Buttigieg/Trump matchup in Pennsylvania look like after the voter is informed that Pete Buttigieg, 38 anni, was former mayor of a small city who is married to a man? President Trump was up significantly in that poll.
- How many voters actually know or remember that Elizabeth Warren officially claimed, multiple times, in her academic career that her race was “Native American” and that she took a DNA test proving that this assertion was not true, that number would surely be 100 after a general election against President Trump.
- How many Democrats would immediately jumped off the speeding Mike Bloomberg train if they were informed that in Y 2004, as a Republican, he endorsed George W. Bush for President at the GOP convention? That information needed to be tested before Mr. Bloomberg was anointed the savior of the Democratic race, thus blocking other viable options who could more easily win the nomination. I was not.
The Trump Campaign did polls exactly like the ones I suggested, but they have a huge disincentive to make that information public, until it is too late for Democrats to adjust.The numbers in November will be stronger than in February.
It is important to note
The Black Lives Matter riots ravaging cities across America is turning into the biggest issue in this Presidential campaign.
Democrats are on the defensive as terrorist mobs lay waste to communities and burn down businesses.
In his acceptance speech, President Trump noted that Slow Joe Biden and every other speaker at the Democrat National Convention failed to mention the riots.
“Joe Biden and his supporters remained completely silent about the rioters and criminals spreading mayhem in Democrat-run cities. They never even mentioned it during their entire convention,” the President declared.
There is no question Slow Joe Biden blew it by not mentioning the riots at his convention, now the damage is bleeding away his support
Have a healthy week, Keep the Faith!