Commentary: Paul Ebeling on Wall Street


Wow, what a week it was, it really was!

Technical Analysis: The move Thursday was not encouraging for a continued relief move, much less anything else.

The Big Qs: Was it the end of the relief move? Would the jobs report help spring the move higher, given that the report would reveal the February jobs figures?

The Big A: Friday was jobs report Friday meant something, and as great as it was, it meant nothing.

Neither the NAS Comp nor the PHLX Semiconductor Sector (SOX) suggest the move is over. A rebound upward was hammered again Friday, but the 2 patterns are well above the initial rebound low. After gapping lower, both indices managed to hold where they had opened.

While the S&P 500 gapped lower, it did cross over the 200-Day SMA. That move did not hold, and the S&P 500 broke the 200-Day SMA as the session progressed.

Interestingly, the S&P 500 held at 3,000 on the intra-day low and rebounded from that level into close. While the rebound may be able to continue in the absence of any new bad news, this fact is encouraging, not dispositive.

But Sunday night in Asia bad news broke.

Global equity markets dove Monday as panicked investors fled gold and bonds to hedge the economic trauma of the coronavirus, and Crude Oil dove more than 30% after Saudi Arabia opened the taps in a price war with Russia.

Analysts at BofA Global Research estimated the latest sell-off had seen $9-T in global equity value vaporised in 9 days, while the average 10-yr T-Note yield in the developed world hit 16 bpts, the lowest in 120 yrs.

Here are the big weekend stories that will influence this market this week, just click the links and you will go there, as follows:

  1. President Trump Will Not Postpone Rallies Due to the Virus
  2. President Trump Will Stimulate the Economy to Mitigate the Virus Outbreak
  3. The US is Prepared for a COVID-19 Pandemic
  4. Crude Oil Prices Have Collapsed, More Southside Ahead
  5. Gold Breaks Above 1,700 on Safe-haven Demand
  6. The Economy Will Roar Back to Life

Remember that overnight action in DJIA futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session. Dow futures have been active and volatile during the stock market correction.

For traders the volatility is super, for retail investors it can be harrowing, so, do not panic, and pay attention, it is your money and your responsibility.

Have a terrific week

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