Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) resiliently moving upward

Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD (CAD=X) resiliently moving upward

The Loonie pair rang the opening bell on Wednesday near 1.3281 level and displayed a slight bearish price action. Anyhow, the pair took a bounce off from the stable 1.3271 support handle, moving upside. At 03:00 GMT, the USD/CAD pair was making rounds near 1.3315 multiple month top mark with RSI indicating 60.37 levels.

Pressurized Crude Prices

The Crude Oil prices kept falling on Wednesday as intensifying US-Sino trade tensions mounted over the global economy. Therefore, the market fears of a substantial weakening in the overall demand outlook for the commodity.

Yesterday, the Oil prices had undergone a sharp pullback, breaking down out of a 2-month old symmetrical triangle. Such a breakdown signals for a bearish reversal pattern. Despite that, the Crude Oil WTI Future was 0.32% up since the last closing, trading near $53.57 bbl in the morning session. On moving further downside, the support handles stalled near $51.52 bbl and $50.63 bbl would get activated.

Significant Economic Events

The US economic docket remains quite silent today amid a lack of significant economic events. Anyhow, the Canadian July Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. data release might attempt to tweak the pair’s daily movements. The market expects this Ivey Index to grow 1.15% over the previous 52.4 points.

Later the day, Oil-catalyst EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change computed since August 2 would come out at around 14:30 GMT. This time, the consensus estimate the Crude data to record -3.313 million over the last -8.496 million.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1.34.

The projected lower bound is: 1.32.

The projected closing price is: 1.33.


A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 82.4761. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 69.07. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 188.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 21 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX CAD= closed up 0.004 at 1.332. Volume was 12% above average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 35% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1.328 1.334 1.327 1.332 88,991
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1.32 1.32 1.33
Volatility: 3 6 7
Volume: 73,428 73,694 90,220

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX CAD= is currently 0.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of CAD= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on CAD= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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