British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Investors Eye Job Numbers
GBP/USD has started the week with slight losses. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2979, down 0.21% on the day. There was positive news out of the housing sector, as the Rightmove House Price Index rebounded with a gain of 2.3% in January, after posting five declines in the past six months.
Investors Eye Job Numbers
The week ended on a sour note, as British retail sales declined by 0.6% for a second straight month. Analysts had expected a gain of 0.5 percent. Investors will now shift their focus to the labor market, with key releases on Tuesday. Wage growth has slipped in the second half of 2019 and fell to 3.2% in October. This was sharply lower than the 3.6% gain in September. The downward trend is expected to continue in November, with an estimate of 3.1%. Unemployment rolls fell to 28.8 thousand in November, but this was higher than the forecast of 21.2 thousand. Analysts are braced for a weak release in December, with an estimate of 33.4 thousand.
The pair has broken below the 1.30 line, which has psychological significance. The 50-EMA line remains at 1.3000. Below, 1.2950 remains vulnerable in support. On the upside, 1.3050 has some breathing room as GBP/USD continues to lose ground.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.32.
The projected lower bound is: 1.28.
The projected closing price is: 1.30.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 3 white candles.
A hammer occurred (a hammer has a long lower shadow and closes near the high). Hammers must appear after a significant decline or when prices are oversold (which appears to be the case with FOREX GBP=) to be valid. When this occurs, it usually indicates the formation of a support level and is thus considered a bullish pattern.
A hanging man occurred (a hanging man has a very long lower shadow and a small real body). This pattern can be bullish or bearish, depending on the trend. If it occurs during an uptrend it is called a hanging man line and signifies a reversal top. If it occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX GBP=) it is called a bullish hammer.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
An on-neck line occurred. This is a bearish pattern where prices should move lower when the white candlestick’s (i.e., the most recent) low is penetrated.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 50.7308. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 45.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 24 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -102.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed up 0.000 at 1.301. Volume was 5% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 31% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.300 1.301 1.296 1.301 98,219
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.30 1.30 1.27
Volatility: 5 9 9
Volume: 107,654 97,939 117,490
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 2.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.