British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Geopolitics and a Particularly Busy Economic Calendar in Focus
It’s a particularly busy week ahead on the economic calendar.
It’s a quiet start to the week, however, with September’s Chicago PMI due out on Monday.
Impact on the Dollar will likely be muted ahead of the market’s preferred ISM manufacturing PMI figures on Tuesday.
ADP nonfarm employment change numbers will also provide direction on Wednesday ahead of the ISM non-manufacturing PMI on Thursday.
Factory orders will also garner attention on Thursday ahead of the key data release of the week.
Its nonfarm payrolls on Friday and we can expect both nonfarm payroll and wage growth figures to influence.
As concerns over the U.S and global economies linger, a 2nd month of weak numbers would spur demand for U.S Treasuries.
Of less influence through the week will be finalized Markit survey PMI numbers and trade data.
The Dollar Spot Index ended the week up by 0.66% to $99.109.
For the Pound:
It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.
On Monday, key stats include finalized 2nd quarter GDP numbers, which are due out ahead of private sector PMI numbers through the rest of the week.
September’s manufacturing PMI on Tuesday, construction PMI on Wednesday and services PMI on Thursday will be key through the week.
While the UK may avoid a contraction in the 2nd quarter, contraction across the private sector could signal a contraction in the 3rd quarter.
The GBP/USD ended the week down by 1.49% to $1.2292.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.25.
The projected lower bound is: 1.21.
The projected closing price is: 1.23.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 10.0537. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.29. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 32 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -111.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed up 0.002 at 1.230. Volume was 99% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 7% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.229 1.231 1.228 1.230 926
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.24 1.23 1.27
Volatility: 9 10 9
Volume: 102,060 116,384 144,040
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 3.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 25 periods.