British Pound: USD/GBP (GBP=X) Continues to Press Major Resistance
The British pound initially pulled back a bit during the trading session on Friday, but it was of course Good Friday, meaning that there was almost no trading going on. The 1.25 level above is offering a significant amount of resistance, and therefore we should be paying attention to that level to see whether or not the market can actually breakthrough there. We get a daily close above that level it’s obviously a very bullish sign and should send this market towards the 200 day EMA which is closer to the 1.2650 level. To the other side of the equation, a pullback would show that the 1.25 level continues to be the “ceiling” in the market.
If the market was to rollover from here, it could very easily drop back down to the 1.23 level rather quickly. A break down below there could open up the door to the 1.22 handle, maybe even the 1.20 level. At this point, the market needs to make some type of momentum to come into play in order to get going. It certainly looks as if the British pound is being stubbornly bullish, and with the Federal Reserve adding more stimulus, it is possible that we will see the US dollar get hammered. That being said, pay attention to the open on Monday, because if we break above the 1.25 handle, then it’s likely that we go much higher. On the other hand, if we gapped lower than the market is probably going to lose a couple of hundred pips in a continued consolidation range.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1.29.
The projected lower bound is: 1.21.
The projected closing price is: 1.25.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 92.1811. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 53.77. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX GBP= closed up 0.002 at 1.247. Volume was 85% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 97% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
1.246 1.247 1.245 1.247 17,042
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1.24 1.26 1.27
Volatility: 10 20 14
Volume: 125,581 125,226 112,796
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX GBP= is currently 1.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of GBP= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on GBP= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.