Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) struggling to continue above $10,500

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) struggling to continue above $10,500

In the past few sessions, bitcoin price remained in a bearish zone below $10,600 against the US Dollar. The decline was such that the BTC/USD pair broke the $10,200 support area as well. Moreover, the price spiked below the $10,100 level. A new swing low was formed near the $10,054 and recently the price corrected higher. It spiked above $10,400, but the bulls failed to gain traction above the $10,500 level.

A swing high was formed near $10,529 and the price is currently correcting lower. The price broke the $10,400 level plus the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $10,054 low to $10,529 high. Moreover, the price is trading well below the $10,350 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. An immediate support is near the $10,250 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $10,054 low to $10,529 high.

If there is a downside break below the $10,250 support, the price could revisit the $10,050 support area. Any further losses could accelerate decline below the $10,050 and $10,000 levels. A clear break below the $10,000 level might call for a drop to $9,500.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 11,194.41.

The projected lower bound is: 9,328.58.

The projected closing price is: 10,261.50.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

An inverted hammer occurred. If this occurs during a downtrend it implies a reversal. Look for a confirmation of the reversal on the bar.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

A shooting star occurred (a shooting star has a small real body near the bottom of the candle and a long upper shadow). During an uptrend the long upper shadow indicates that the bears are gaining control and a top may occur.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 22.9973. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.08. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 75 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 28. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 19.210 at 10,262.210. Volume was 65% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 50% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
10,216.03010,398.00010,209.75010,262.210 31,595
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 10,364.61 10,398.54 7,840.41
Volatility: 52 57 79
Volume: 77,321 84,002 82,410

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 30.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.

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