Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) recovery to above $10,000, but the outlook remains bearish with the lower-highs pattern intact

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) recovery to above $10,000, but the outlook remains bearish with the lower-highs pattern intact

Bitcoin is back above $10,000, but the technical charts indicate a bull revival is still $1,000 away.

The premier cryptocurrency by market value is currently trading at $10,150 on Bitstamp, having hit a low of $9,514 yesterday. This is the third time in a month that BTC has charted a quick recovery back into five figures.

Prices bounced off the former-resistance-turned support of $9,097 on July 17 and climbed back above $10,000 the following day. Before that, BTC printed a low of $9,614 on July 2 only to close well above $10,000 the same day.

On both occasions, BTC carved out lower highs – a bearish pattern – at $11,120 and $13,200, respectively.

The latest bounce may have caught some investors off guard, as BTC was on slippery grounds 24-hours ago after breaching long-term trendline support on Tuesday.

Despite the rise, the outlook remains bearish, as the lower-highs pattern is still intact. BTC needs to rally by $1,000 and beat resistance at $11,120 to invalidate lower highs and revive the bullish view.

That said, BTC may have a tough time rising above $11,120 as key resistances are currently capping upside.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

The projected upper bound is: 11,592.62.

The projected lower bound is: 7,910.12.

The projected closing price is: 9,751.37.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 21.7986. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 29 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -91. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 25 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -169.900 at 9,710.800. Volume was 74% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 24% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
9,870.5009,950.4909,630.6009,710.800 23,120
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 10,192.46 10,275.76 6,266.56
Volatility: 73 105 78
Volume: 86,178 92,172 79,561

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 55.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods.

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