Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) positioned itself back in the control of bearish traders

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) positioned itself back in the control of bearish traders

Bitcoin has positioned itself back in the control of bearish traders after being rejected from the $7,000 level of resistance for the third time in as many days.

After tapping $6,980 Bitcoin proceeded to fall dramatically, sliding all the way down to $6,460 before floating back to the $6,650 level.

It’s worth noting that $7,000 has been a historical level of support and resistance dating back to the 2018 bear market, with it also providing support throughout November and December.

A breakout above this level would undoubtedly be violent with several analysts suggesting that a move back into the $8,000 region leading up to May’s halving event could be on the cards.

The Bitcoin halving has been covered extensively by Coin Rivet in the past. It is an event that sees block rewards for miners halved from 12.5BTC per block to 6.25BTC per block, which theoretically reduces supply going onto the market.

The two previous halvings have led to a series of bull markets that saw Bitcoin eclipse its previous all-time high, with the latest coming in 2017 when Bitcoin surged to $20,000.

That is why, despite uncertainty surrounding coronavirus, Bitcoin traders are seemingly more bullish than ever from a medium to macro timeframe perspective.

However, a news event as impactful as Coronavirus has the potential to invalidate all theories and predictions as it truly takes control of capital markets.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 7,518.45.

The projected upper bound is: 7,996.58.

The projected lower bound is: 5,302.41.

The projected closing price is: 6,649.50.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.7919. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 14 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.93. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 100. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -34.900 at 6,710.100. Volume was 50% below average (consolidating)(neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 67% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
6,741.2906,870.0006,625.0006,710.100 135,586
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 6,316.43 8,248.45 8,312.56
Volatility: 115 128 81
Volume: 521,696 393,288 167,310

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 19.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 35 periods.

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