Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Matches Record Losing Run in Fall to Six-Month Low

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Matches Record Losing Run in Fall to Six-Month Low

Bitcoin sank nearly 10% to the lowest level in six months, extending last week’s slide past the weekend on concerns about a crackdown on cryptocurrency operations by China.

The digital currency plunged as much as 9.8% from Friday’s close and was trading just above $6,700 as of 11 a.m. in Hong Kong, according to Bloomberg composite pricing. It’s the first time since May that Bitcoin traded below the key $7,000 psychological level.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency is also on track for eight straight days of declines, tying a record losing streak from 2014, according to Bitstamp pricing going back to August 2011 and including weekend trading.

There are plenty of other possible explanations for the drop. Traders are blaming low volumes and citing attractive returns from traditional assets, eToro U.K. market analyst Adam Vettese wrote in a note Friday. Smaller miners are also getting squeezed out by the falling price, causing further selling toward the break-even level of around $5,600 to $6,400, Vijay Ayyar, Singapore-based head of business development at crypto exchange Luno, said Monday.

“We’re seeing what is called miner capitulation and that has indicated previous large drops in the price of Bitcoin,” he said. “At this time, the cost of production could be indicated to be in the $6,000 range and hence we’ve seen the price dip to that range last week.”

Bitcoin is still up substantially in 2019 — it ended last year at $3,674. After a meteoric rise from April to June, when it soared above $13,000, it lost momentum and has been gradually dropping since.

Technical Indicator

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 8,354.19.

The projected upper bound is: 7,515.66.

The projected lower bound is: 5,828.14.

The projected closing price is: 6,671.90.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 16 white candles and 34 black candles for a net of 18 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 22.0619. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 26 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 20.19. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 49 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -142.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -356.910 at 6,696.070. Volume was 47% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 50% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
7,076.7407,157.6006,505.1906,696.070 41,452
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 7,732.23 8,466.23 9,391.10
Volatility: 47 66 79
Volume: 69,121 77,354 86,253

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 28.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of BTC= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BTC= is currently in an oversold condition.

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