Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) hovers at decisive $8,400 level

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) hovers at decisive $8,400 level

Data from Coin360 showed BTC/USD attempting to crack the $8,500 level on Monday, only to see rejection after falling from $8,600 late on Sunday. 

At press time, the pair traded around $8,450 – a crucial area which analysts suggest could dictate whether the mood going forward is bullish or bearish.

“Do or die for the Bulls. This level needs to hold,” regular Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized in private comments.

In his most recent Twitter update, van de Poppe added that while the overall situation was “still not bad,” losing support at $8,400 would open up the potential for Bitcoin to return to $7,400. The move would mark a return to levels broken last month in an abrupt bull run which took the cryptocurrency to over $10,500. 

Other sources were also weary, with trader Scott Melker eyeing a breakdown in Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI). A measure of price change, RSI breaking resistance can spill over to impact on Bitcoin price.

“RSI has broken through both major descending resistances. Price usually follows,” Melker said on Sunday.

As Cointelegraph reported, RSI action suggests Bitcoin is now at the start of a new extended price cycle.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 8,871.18.

The projected upper bound is: 8,968.02.

The projected lower bound is: 7,372.86.

The projected closing price is: 8,170.44.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 17 white candles and 33 black candles for a net of 16 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 35.4708. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 20 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.98. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 43 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -150.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -45.090 at 8,172.200. Volume was 75% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 23% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
8,215.4708,267.1008,006.3508,172.200 19,583
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 8,578.31 8,567.51 9,346.02
Volatility: 38 61 78
Volume: 68,203 78,541 85,696

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 12.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of BTC= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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