Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) floats in the waters of uncertainty

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) floats in the waters of uncertainty

As Bitcoin’s (BTC) price floats in the waters of uncertainty in the low $8,000 range, one might wonder how crypto’s largest asset found itself at the bottom of a steep drop after its exuberant price rise from $3,330 to $13,880 earlier in 2019. One explanation could be that the move was simply the market’s reaction to a chart pattern many experts had their eyes on for months. 

After its June 26 price high at $13,880, Bitcoin formed a descending triangle, followed by multiple months of consolidation. Near the end of the pattern the digital asset plunged from $9,700 to $8,000, a $1,700 drop in a single day. Bitcoin’s Sept. 24 tumble also occurred just one day after Bakkt launched its physically-settled Bitcoin futures product.

Bitcoin sits in the lower $8,000 range as it sets up for its next move, which Krogsgard noted possibly could be down to $5,000 or $6,000. Such a drop would signal the end of a complete measured move for Bitcoin, although, buyers have shown up to defend lower prices so far.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 9,351.93.

The projected upper bound is: 9,114.93.

The projected lower bound is: 7,440.99.

The projected closing price is: 8,277.96.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 74.3531. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 32.12. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -43. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 54.650 at 8,314.750. Volume was 61% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 55% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
8,234.5008,439.9008,191.1308,314.750 33,154
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 8,263.99 9,810.56 8,466.79
Volatility: 83 55 80
Volume: 87,327 80,767 84,544

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


FOREX BTC= is currently 1.8% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 9 periods.

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