Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) buyers prove reluctant to engage with the market
Bitcoin prices tumbled over 4 percent Monday as buyers proved reluctant to engage with the market, likely due to recent suggestions of a new crypto crackdown in China.
At press time on Tuesday, the world’s top crypto by market capitalization had dropped further, and was down 3.03 percent on the day. Bitcoin is currently changing hands at $8,144, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index.
Amid the lack of trader enthusiasm, two long-term moving averages – the 100 and 200-day – crossed over on Nov. 17, suggesting a long-term trend change in favor of the bears.
As seen above, a crossover of the two averages, whereby the 100-period moves below the 200-period, does not bode well for bitcoin’s price. Back in early 2018, a long-term bear cross saw prices fall by as much as 60 percent.
While past events are not indicative of future results, it does raise the question: how far can bitcoin’s value fall?
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 8,828.82.
The projected upper bound is: 8,906.55.
The projected lower bound is: 7,312.71.
The projected closing price is: 8,109.63.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 17 white candles and 33 black candles for a net of 16 black candles.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 28.1576. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 21 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.20. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 44 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -137.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed up 10.000 at 8,115.000. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 16% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 8,480.09 8,560.79 9,357.83
Volatility: 32 61 78
Volume: 64,240 77,528 85,603
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 13.3% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume out of BTC= (mildly bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.