Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Breakout Ahead?

Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Breakout Ahead?

As risk assets regain their mojo amid optimism the coronavirus spread is beginning to level off, Bitcoin’s back above $7,000.

The largest cryptocurrency gained as much as 6.4% Monday to $7,193, its highest in nearly a month. That’s its biggest one-day gain in two weeks and caps a near 11% rally for Bitcoin so far in April.

“Risk-on mode was evidenced across both crypto and non-crypto markets, as market participants reacted positively to signs that coronavirus outbreaks have started to stabilize in some of the worst-affected countries,” said Denis Vinokourov, head of research at Bequant, a London-based digital asset firm. “For Bitcoin, it was more of a continuation of the trend that started last week, and, this time, Bitcoin’s attempt to break above $7,000 was much more resolute.”

Bitcoin’s rally corresponds to a surge in equity markets. And the gains are a welcome reprieve for crypto fans following a brutal March that wreaked havoc on Bitcoin and peer tokens amid wider financial market turmoil.

If the current price can hold above this level, at least one technical measure suggests Bitcoin could see a run to $8,000, where the coin was trading ahead of its massive drop last month. The $7,000 threshold was a solid support line for Bitcoin between November and January — remaining above it could provide support should it decline again.

Bitcoin could ascend to the $7,500 level, according to Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda. “It’s struggling to gather the momentum required to break the barrier down but as we know with Bitcoin, that can change dramatically in a heartbeat,” Erlam wrote in a note. “If it breaks through those levels, then we could be looking at a healthy surge and another run towards $10,000.”

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

The projected upper bound is: 8,713.71.

The projected lower bound is: 5,948.78.

The projected closing price is: 7,331.24.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 19 white candles and 31 black candles for a net of 12 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.8527. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 25 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 19 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 171.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 148.910 at 7,376.810. Volume was 53% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 40% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
7,242.0007,460.1007,198.6007,376.810 183,851
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 6,689.06 7,509.31 8,114.99
Volatility: 76 134 83
Volume: 1,129,108 569,189 221,683

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 9.1% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BTC= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

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