Bitcoin: USD/BTC (BTC=X) Approaching Key Resistance
Bitcoin is notoriously volatile, prone to sudden price surges and swift reversals that can wipe out millions of dollars of value in a matter of minutes. Those changes are often mysterious to market observers, given the digital currency’s lack of fundamentals, or ties to the real economy.
Bitcoin has another quirk, one that was built into the code that gave it birth: every so often, the formula that governs the rate at which new tokens are created changes. As another such event — called a halving — approaches, Bitcoin supporters and skeptics are debating what kind of impact it may have on the coin’s value.
Shayne Heffernan Trade Idea
“Bitcoin remains a reasonably small market; it’s not the tiny market that it used to be, trading volumes are there and are strong. But I wonder whether the market today is big enough for it to be worth the risk.” Shayne Heffernan PhD in Economics
Why This Matters
Enthusiasts say bitcoin is immune to the impact of geopolitical tensions or government policy because of its decentralised nature. Unlike central bank-issued money, miners competing to solve computer puzzles produce bitcoin.
With a supply capped at 21 million, the argument goes, its scarcity gives it an innate value and shields it from central banks moves or policies that stoke inflation.
But in 2020, bitcoin fared worse than traditional safe havens like gold, up 11%, and U.S. 10-year Treasuries , gains on which have climbed 14%. On March 12, when bitcoin crashed 40% to its worst single day since 2013, other so-called safe havens proved far more resilient.
Bitcoin’s gains, some investors say, were driven in part by bets it can hedge any future inflation caused by government stimulus measures.
Technical Indicators
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 9,012.63.
The projected lower bound is: 6,378.27.
The projected closing price is: 7,695.45.
Candlesticks
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum Indicators
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 83.3172. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 62.17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 39 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 126.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.
MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed up 61.820 at 7,706.350. Volume was 65% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 49% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 7,632.000 7,811.260 7,578.600 7,706.350 154,137
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 7,321.36 6,714.90 7,980.03 Volatility: 47 133 82 Volume: 293,985 579,291 246,491
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
Summary
FOREX BTC= is currently 3.4% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 25 periods.
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