Bitcoin: BTC/USD (BTC=X) The Bear Case

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Bitcoin
Ticker: BTC=
Price: $19182.19

Bitcoin News

Despite the apparently favorable sentiment, just 17% of those surveyed predicted that Bitcoin’s price would exceed $50,000 by 2030. This would only require the price to increase by 160% over the next 10 years, while BTC has already gained 166.5% during 2020 so far.

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A further 17% predicted that Bitcoin’s price would actually fall over the next decade, while one sixth of respondents did not feel confident in speculating on BTC’s long-term price performance.

In total 50.1% of respondents estimated that BTC will be worth $20,000 or less by 2030, one third predicted the price will be $10,000 or less, and 11.8% forecasted prices below $1,001.

Almost one-third of respondents who predict a stagnate or bearish 10-year performance expect Bitcoin to be hindered by regulations, while one fifth anticipate outright bans on cryptocurrency from governments.

Roughly 17% of non-bullish respondents expect another cryptocurrency or a central-bank issued digital currency will capture a dominant market share and supersede BTC, while 16% predict Bitcoin’s historical meteoric hype-cycles will die down over time. Nearly 10% of participants do not believe “there is going to be a practical use case” for Bitcoin in future.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 21,107.01.

The projected lower bound is: 17,491.40.

The projected closing price is: 19,299.20.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.

An inverted hammer occurred. If this occurs during a downtrend it implies a reversal. Look for a confirmation of the reversal on the bar.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

A shooting star occurred (a shooting star has a small real body near the bottom of the candle and a long upper shadow). During an uptrend(which appears to be the case with FOREX BTC=) the long upper shadow indicates that the bears are gaining control and a top may occur.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 74.6868. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 58.78. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 19 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed down -19.740 at 19,176.010. Volume was 63% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 7% wider than normal.

Open        High        Low         Close       Volume
19,200.990  19,562.250  19,161.949  19,176.010  223,112
Technical Outlook
Short Term:        Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term:         Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period    50-period     200-period
Close:           18,723.26    16,967.38     12,141.70
Volatility:      51           67            50
Volume:          662,402      741,738       629,009

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 57.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.

Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 4 periods.

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