Bitcoin: BTC/USD (BTC=X) Supply Squeeze “The Biggest Story in Bitcoin”

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Bitcoin
Ticker: BTC=
Price: $18417.00

Bitcoin Outlook

Within Bitcoin, the emerging narrative that buyers are simply demanding more coins than can be produced continues.

As noted previously, this is being driven by corporate entities, notably Grayscale, Square’s Cash App and PayPal, with the requirements of all three only rising with time as more clients choose to buy BTC.

The result is that miners see their block subsidies snapped up, and the only way for the buy side to plug the gap is to pay higher prices per coin.

“PayPal and Cash App are already buying more than 100% of all newly-issued bitcoins,” investment firm Pantera Capital summarized in a blog post on Nov. 21.

“Where would Cash App get their coins? That’s where the finite-supply, inelasticity part comes in: At a higher price. That is THE story in Bitcoin right now.”

Pantera included a chart of volume from ItBit, the exchange run by Paxos, the payment handler covering PayPal’s new cryptocurrency feature. PayPal alone, it added, appears already to be buying 70% of all newly-mined bitcoins.

The new status quo differs markedly from the last time that Bitcoin traded at levels near $20,000. Unlike then, various figures argue, those buying this time are by definition in it for the long run.

“At $18.5K #Bitcoin Google searches for ‘bitcoin’ have not seen an uptick. This is not a FOMO rally. It’s steady hands. Few understand this,” Gemini exchange co-founder Cameron Winklevoss tweeted on Monday.

Last week, comments from one traditional market strategist underlined the seeming lack of interest in Bitcoin from mainstream consumers. This, she told Bloomberg, had died in 2017.

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Technical Indicators

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 15,364.51.

The projected upper bound is: 19,763.74.

The projected lower bound is: 17,626.04.

The projected closing price is: 18,694.89.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 35 white candles and 15 black candles for a net of 20 white candles.

A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 69.2962. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 80.37. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 76. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 48 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

FOREX BTC= closed up 115.680 at 18,538.869. Volume was 84% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 111% wider than normal.

Open         High        Low         Close        Volume
18,430.600   18,538.869  18,141.000  18,538.869   94,109
Technical Outlook
Short Term:        Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term:         Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period       200-period
Close:           17,908.28     14,105.33       11,162.27
Volatility:      35            48              48
Volume:          699,621       560,488         589,754

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

FOREX BTC= is currently 66.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.

Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into BTC= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 58 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BTC= is currently in an overbought condition.

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