A few times now, BTC has struggled to reach the $12,000 mark. For the most part, it’s achieved this goal, but it has always fallen back to its previous position. Right now, $12,000 has proven way too strong for bitcoin to handle. At press time, bitcoin is trading for over $11,600, which would leave only a $300+ difference between where it is now and a lasting $12,000.
But bitcoin did reach $12,000 about two days ago, and sadly, this clearly didn’t last. The obstacle proved too much for bitcoin to break, and it has lost about $800 over the past 48 hours. $400 today, and $400 yesterday. It’s not a pretty sight.
On top of that, it’s very repetitive of what happened when bitcoin initially tried to reach $10,000 earlier in the year. This happened in both May and June. The first occurred right after bitcoin’s third halving. No doubt the hype, hoopla and anticipation surrounding the event had a lot to do with this, but once the halving hype died down, so did bitcoin’s price.
The second time, in June, is for the most part, unexplained. The only thing people likely remember about it is how short a period the jump lasted. Bitcoin was above $10K for what felt like mere minutes before tumbling back down into the mid-$9,000 range all over again.
What Pushed the Currency Above and Beyond?
Some lasting, mainstream pushes managed to heave bitcoin above the $10K range, the first being an announcement that more stimulus checks were coming for middle-income Americans affected by the coronavirus. The second was that banks would now be offering crypto custody services to customers. This managed to help lift bitcoin above $10K and keep it there. The same thing would need to happen if bitcoin is to rise above the $12,000 mark.
If bitcoin can potentially move beyond this position, $15,000 is virtually guaranteed, which means that $17,000 would be next for the world’s number one cryptocurrency by market cap. For now, however, we should probably focus on bitcoin’s initial price movements before shifting to what could happen in the future.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 12,701.74.
The projected lower bound is: 11,071.14.
The projected closing price is: 11,886.44.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 16 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 24.7330. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.86. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 14 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 34. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed down -26.939 at 11,831.360. Volume was 93% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 13% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 11,864.000 11,901.000 11,806.830 11,831.360 42,177
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 11,846.35 10,485.44 8,980.19 Volatility: 38 47 84 Volume: 875,938 719,068 523,192
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 31.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 38 periods.
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