The price of one bitcoin rose above $20,000 on Wednesday. The new all-time record caps a year of gains for the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency. The value of all bitcoin in circulation is now around $380 billion.
No single event seems to have pushed bitcoin’s value over the $20,000 mark. But more and more companies, institutions, and wealthy individuals have started to see it as a worthwhile long-term investment, driving demand upward.
A software company called MicroStrategy has poured hundreds of millions of dollars into bitcoin in recent months. It recently announced it was raising another $400 million to buy bitcoin.
We’re now in the fourth major boom bitcoin has experienced since it was created in 2009. Bitcoin reached its previous peak around $19,500 in December 2017 before crashing to a low around $3,200 a year later.
In bitcoin’s early years, bitcoin boosters positioned it as a new payment technology, emphasizing its ability to clear transactions in minutes with near-zero transaction fees. But that vision didn’t pan out. While it’s fairly easy for a merchant to accept bitcoins, acquiring bitcoins for routine transactions continued to be a hassle. Moreover, the capacity of the bitcoin network failed to keep up with rising demand, leading to skyrocketing fees and long wait times at the tail end of the last bitcoin boom in 2017.
As a result, many people today see bitcoin as primarily an investment asset. People don’t buy bitcoins because they want to make payments with it. They buy it in the hopes that its value will continue rising.
That might seem paradoxical. Most assets—stocks, bonds, real estate—are valued based on the income they generate. But not all assets are like that. Gold doesn’t generate any dividends, yet the world’s gold stocks are collectively worth trillions of dollars. Bitcoin investors are betting the same will be true of cryptocurrency in the long run.
And this is increasingly looking like a winner-take-all market. Bitcoin’s price is now above its previous high from 2017. But other leading cryptocurrencies have not regained their previous highs. The number two cryptocurrency, Ethereum’s ether, is worth around $600, less than half the peak reached in early 2018. Bitcoin Cash, a bitcoin spinoff designed to enable higher transaction volumes, has lost 90 percent of its value since its late 2017 peak. Litecoin is down about 70 percent over three years.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 23,754.62.
The projected lower bound is: 19,920.21.
The projected closing price is: 21,837.42.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 95.5873. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 24 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 71.36. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 21 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed up 453.641 at 21,668.150. Volume was 79% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 38% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 21,202.600 21,879.199 21,141.939 21,668.150 125,386
Technical Outlook Short Term: Overbought Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 19,214.88 17,293.65 12,262.62 Volatility: 71 69 52 Volume: 607,695 745,011 630,136
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 76.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that BTC= is currently in an overbought condition.
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