Bitcoin completed a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern on July 27 when it closed above $10,500 and usually the price retests the breakout levels of such reversal patterns.
In ideal conditions, the price should not dip below the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern, but trading is anything but ideal.
Although the bears pulled the BTC/USD pair below the neckline on Sep. 3, there has not been much follow up selling, which suggests buying by the bulls at lower levels. However, this buying dries up when the price tries to move up above the $10,500 level.
Due to this, the pair is currently stuck in the $9,835–$10,625 range. After the bears failed to sink the price below the range on Sep. 8, the bulls today attempted to push the price above the overhead resistance but failed.
The 20-day exponential moving average ($10,719) is just above the resistance of the range, hence, the bears are likely to defend it aggressively.
However, if the bulls can propel the pair above the 20-day EMA and sustain the higher levels for three days, it will suggest that the correction is over. That could result in a retest of $12,460 and if this resistance is crossed, the uptrend is likely to resume.
This bullish view will be invalidated if the pair breaks and sustains below the $9,835 support.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 11,350.71.
The projected lower bound is: 9,381.48.
The projected closing price is: 10,366.09.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 31 white candles and 19 black candles for a net of 12 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.2127. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 41.62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 38 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 36 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
FOREX BTC= closed up 100.000 at 10,356.910. Volume was 56% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 75% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 10,263.000 10,384.730 10,250.000 10,356.910 307,490
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bearish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 10,244.87 11,265.56 9,123.26 Volatility: 38 56 83 Volume: 959,912 848,443 581,304
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
FOREX BTC= is currently 13.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.
Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of BTC= at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on BTC= and have had this outlook for the last 20 periods.
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