Following the latest results, Apple’s 30 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$314.2b in 2021. This would be a notable 14% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 18% to US$3.89. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$308.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.86 in 2021. The consensus analysts don’t seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there’s been no major change to their estimates.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$124, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company’s valuation. The most optimistic Apple analyst has a price target of US$150 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$71.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Apple’s past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Apple’s growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% growth ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.7% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.4% next year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it’s pretty clear that Apple is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures and markets mobile communication and media devices, personal computers and portable digital music players.
The Company sells a range of related software, services, accessories, networking solutions, and third-party digital content and applications.
The Company’s segments include the Americas, Europe, Greater China, Japan and Rest of Asia Pacific.
The Americas segment includes both North and South America. The Europe segment includes European countries, India, the Middle East and Africa.
The Greater China segment includes China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
The Rest of Asia Pacific segment includes Australia and the Asian countries not included in the Company’s other operating segments.
Its products and services include iPhone, iPad, Mac, iPod, Apple Watch, Apple TV, a portfolio of consumer and professional software applications, iPhone OS (iOS), OS X and watchOS operating systems, iCloud, Apple Pay and a range of accessory, service and support offerings.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
The projected upper bound is: 119.34.
The projected lower bound is: 98.01.
The projected closing price is: 108.67.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
A falling window occurred (where the bottom of the previous shadow is above the top of the current shadow). This usually implies a continuation of a bearish trend.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 24.0741. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.36. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 40 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -188.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
APPLE INC closed down -6.460 at 108.860. Volume was 100% below average (consolidating) and Bollinger Bands were 31% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume 111.060 111.990 107.720 108.860 44,093
Technical Outlook Short Term: Neutral Intermediate Term: Bullish Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period Close: 114.82 117.18 90.71 Volatility: 52 57 61 Volume: 101,380,816 164,379,536 168,847,872
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
APPLE INC gapped down today (bearish) on light volume. Possibility of a Common Gap which usually coincides with a lack of interest in the security. Common Gaps are fairly irrelevent for forecasting purposes. Four types of price gaps exist – Common, Breakaway, Runaway, and Exhaustion. Gaps acts as support/resistance.
APPLE INC is currently 20.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of AAPL.O at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on AAPL.O and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods.